You forgot to add in the probability of the nukes actually working. What kind of components have been stolen and sold? How about rocket fuel? What about the fact that these weapons require a lot of very specific and professional maintenance. You think some drunk sitting in a silo earning a pittance cares about doing a professional job after his commanding officer stripped the valuables out of the detonating device which is in and of itself a complicated piece of kit and sold it off some time ago?